The post Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending, Fidelity Research Suggests appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

TLDR: Fidelity data shows Bitcoin volatility hitting record lows even months after the 2025 price peak near $126,000. Public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of Bitcoin supply, signaling major institutional accumulation. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has stayed near 2x realized value this cycle, far below peaks seen in past bull markets. Fidelity’s profit-to-volatility ratio has remained above 0.015 since 2023, marking the longest stability period. Bitcoin’s market behavior may be entering a new phase, according to recent research from Fidelity Digital Assets.  The firm argues that long-standing boom-and-bust cycles could weaken as institutional demand reshapes the market. Data shows volatility hitting record lows even months after Bitcoin reached new price highs.  The question now is whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle still defines the crypto market. Fidelity Digital Assets just published a research report arguing Bitcoin’s classic four-year boom-bust cycle is over. Their core finding: Bitcoin’s market cap hit $2.5 trillion at its October 2025 peak, but one-year realized volatility hit 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.… pic.twitter.com/PcLDPLqXkj — TFTC (@TFTC21) March 6, 2026 Bitcoin Volatility Trends Challenge the Classic Four-Year Cycle Bitcoin reached a market capitalization near $2.5 trillion during its October 2025 peak. Prices climbed above $126,000 during that rally. However, volatility moved in the opposite direction. One-year realized volatility recorded 17 new all-time lows in January 2026. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, this pattern differs sharply from previous cycles. Historically, volatility surged as Bitcoin approached market peaks. The current trend suggests a shift toward a larger and more liquid market. Fidelity compared Bitcoin’s growth to large-cap technology companies reaching maturity. The firm notes that Bitcoin’s market size has expanded rapidly across cycles. The asset is now twice as large as its 2021 peak valuation. It also stands nearly ten times…

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Filed under: News - @ March 7, 2026 7:27 am