The post Fed funds futures steady as March 2026 hold odds at 97% appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Sticky inflation, jobs drive 97.3% odds for Fed March 2026 hold market-implied odds of a hold in the Fed March 2026 rate decision have climbed to 97.3%, based on data from the CME FedWatch Tool. The current pricing implies no change to the target range of 3.50%-3.75%. The setup reflects stubborn inflation in services and housing alongside a resilient labor market, as reported by news/fed-logan-cautiously-optimistic-inflation-184009783.html” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener”>Yahoo Finance’s coverage of Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-logan-cautiously-optimistic-inflation-184009783.html). Logan also described policy as approaching a neutral stance, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach. Officials continue to stress data dependence. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently framed the likelihood of a March cut as roughly even and contingent on upcoming labor revisions, as reported by the Associated Press (https://apnews.com/article/728aa0b00b5d3291169cb807472332d6). Market trackers corroborate the high-90s scenario, with estimates in the mid-to-high 90s, according to mlq.ai (https://mlq.ai/prediction/news/fed-holds-steady-prediction-market-sees-96-chance-of-no-change-202603021130/) and a Florida PRIME weekly commentary (https://prime.sbafla.com/media/firdbbjd/flprimeweeklycommentary3226.pdf). What a hold at 3.50%-3.75% means for households and markets A hold would keep the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, leaving the policy stance near current settings. Borrowing costs closely linked to the policy rate would be unchanged at the decision. For households and firms, that preserves prevailing financing conditions while officials evaluate additional inflation and employment evidence. Market expectations could still reprice if incoming data diverge. Patience remains central to the policy message. “patient and be more careful,” said Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, discussing the rationale after January’s hold (https://www.atlantafed.org/what-we-study/regional-economy/2026/02/02/bostic-discusses-recent-fomc-decision-to-hold-rate-steady). Data that could shift CME FedWatch probability before the meeting CPI and PCE inflation prints, especially core measures and services categories, can alter the path markets assign to March. Stronger readings tend to reinforce a hold; softer trends increase cut odds. Nonfarm payrolls and any revisions to recent gains could also sway odds, given policymakers’ sensitivity to labor momentum. If…

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Filed under: News - @ March 10, 2026 5:23 pm