Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Supply stood at 8.05 million BTC as of March 11, 2026, representing a decline of roughly 5.5% from the cycle peak of 8,529,671 BTC recorded on March 8, 2026, when the asset traded at $65,974, and the metric’s Z-score reached 3.20.

At the time of the latest reading, the Z-score had eased to 2.66.

Compressed Cycle

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., despite the recent pullback, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders at this point in the cycle remains historically high. When compared with previous cycles at the same post-halving stage, day 691 after the halving, the current cycle shows significantly larger holdings.

In fact, the total volume of coins held by long-term holders was found to be about 1.52 times higher than during the 2020 cycle and roughly 3.4 times higher than in the 2016 cycle at equivalent points. Adler explained that the current Z-score of 2.66 is very similar to the 2016 cycle reading of 2.94 at the same stage. In the 2016 halving cycle, this period witnessed the early phase of the final redistribution period, which continued for approximately another 200 days before the metric reached its all-time high in December 2018.

On the other hand, the 2020 cycle displayed a very different structure at the same point in time. At day 691 following the halving in that cycle, the Z-score was only 1.08, reflecting the end of the bear market following the Terra/LUNA collapse, and the LTH Realized Supply had already been declining for eight months from its peak.

Adler also examined the MA365 ratio, which currently stands at 1.595 in the ongoing cycle. This level is lower than the equivalent ratio in the 2016 cycle, which was 2.523, and slightly higher than the 2020 cycle value of 1.502. According to the analyst, this means that the degree of overheating relative to the one-year moving average remains moderate.

In previous cycles, the final peaks of LTH Realized Supply occurred between days 880 and 912 after the halving, almost 190 to 220 days later than the current point in the cycle. In those cycles, the Z-score ultimately climbed to between 4.24 and 4.94 before the peak was reached. If the present cycle follows a similar timeline, Adler said the current peak could represent only an intermediate high rather than the final one.

Accumulation Loses Momentum

However, he also pointed out that the current cycle differs structurally from earlier ones because institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have locked up large volumes of coins, thereby reducing the share of supply available for active circulation and potentially accelerating the accumulation process among long-term holders.

There has also been a slowdown in accumulation momentum, as the 30-day rate of change is currently at +7.6%, far below the levels seen in comparable phases of previous cycles, when the metric rose by as much as 87% in 2016 and 51.6% in 2020. According to the analyst, the declining growth rate suggests the market may be entering a stabilization phase following the strong accumulation seen in January and February 2026.

The post Bitcoin LTH Supply Near Record Highs Despite Pullback From Peak appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ March 12, 2026 4:20 pm