TLDR:

Citi lowered its Bitcoin 12-month base case to $112,000, a $31,000 cut from its prior $143,000 forecast.

Ethereum’s revised base case now stands at $3,175, reflecting a $1,129 drop from Citi’s earlier projection.

Stalled U.S. crypto legislation and softening ETF inflows are the two key reasons behind the target revision.

Citi’s Bitcoin bear case sits at $58,000, tied to a recessionary scenario the bank does not currently expect. 

Bitcoin price target revisions from major financial institutions carry real weight across crypto markets. Citigroup, the world’s third-largest bank, has officially lowered its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The bank cut Bitcoin’s base case to $112,000 from $143,000 and Ethereum’s to $3,175 from $4,304. Two primary factors drove the change: stalled U.S. crypto legislation and a noticeable softening in ETF inflows.

Citi Revises Bitcoin and Ethereum Forecasts Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

The revision marks a $31,000 reduction in Citi’s Bitcoin outlook within a single update. For Ethereum, the cut amounts to $1,129 off the previous 12-month base case estimate.

Both reductions came simultaneously, pointing to a broader reassessment of the crypto market. Citi cited U.S. legislative delays and weaker ETF demand as the main drivers.

Markets had widely priced in a pro-crypto regulatory wave from the United States. That wave has not arrived, and institutional forecasters are now adjusting their positions.

As Milk Road noted, “when a bank of Citi’s size moves its targets, it’s usually because the macro story changed.” This suggests the revision goes beyond surface-level price action.

Softening ETF inflows added another layer of pressure to Citi’s forward-looking model. Institutional demand through ETF channels had previously been a key pillar of bullish forecasts.

With that momentum easing, the bank’s analysts found less justification for the higher targets. The revision reflects a more cautious, data-driven stance from the institution.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum still trade well below their revised base case targets. Bitcoin is currently priced near $74,089, while Ethereum sits around $2,325.

This means the revised base cases still project considerable upside from current levels. However, reaching those levels will depend heavily on regulatory progress.

Bull and Bear Cases Reveal the Range of Possible Outcomes

Citi’s bull case for Bitcoin holds steady at $165,000 for the 12-month period ahead. That figure sits roughly 47% above the revised base case of $112,000.

For Ethereum, the bull scenario projects a price of $4,488 over the same period. These numbers show the bank has not turned broadly bearish on digital assets.

On the opposite end, the bear case projects Bitcoin falling to $58,000. Ethereum’s downside scenario drops further, landing at $1,198.

Both bearish outcomes are tied to a recessionary environment taking hold. Citi does not view this as the most likely scenario, but it remains within range.

The wide spread between bull and bear cases reflects the ongoing uncertainty in crypto markets. Regulatory outcomes, macroeconomic shifts, and ETF demand trends all remain unpredictable.

Any movement on U.S. crypto legislation could quickly shift the probability toward the higher end. Conversely, prolonged policy stagnation could push outcomes closer to the bearish range.

The base case revision carries the most weight for institutional market participants. It represents Citi’s central expectation given current available data.

Further revisions remain possible as the regulatory and macroeconomic landscape develops. For now, the market must recalibrate around a more measured institutional outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The post Citi Slashes Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Targets as U.S. Crypto Legislation Stalls appeared first on Blockonomi.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ March 18, 2026 8:25 am