S&P 500 set for ‘total collapse’ if this level fails to hold, according to expert
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A trading expert is warning that the S&P 500 is approaching a critical technical juncture that could determine whether the broader market remains in a long-term uptrend or slips into a new bear cycle. Insights by TradingShot, shared in a TradingView post on March 17, base the outlook on the fact that the benchmark index closed two consecutive weekly candles below its 100-day moving average (MA), a development flagged as the first clear bearish confirmation signal. S&P 500 analysis chart. Source: TradingView Attention has now shifted to the 50-week MA at around 6,500, which is acting as the final major support level separating bullish continuation from a broader structural downturn. The outlook notes this level aligns with an arc-shaped topping pattern that has historically preceded sharp corrections. In past drawdowns, including the 2022 inflation bear market and the 2025 tariff sell-off, the S&P 500 tested this same support while the weekly RSI hovered in the mid-40s, similar to current conditions, signaling a potential decisive breakdown. If the 50-week moving average breaks, the analysis points to a move toward the 200-week moving average, the market’s key long-term support. This would mirror past corrections that extended to the 2.382 Fibonacci level, with declines of about 27.6% and 21.8%, signaling substantial downside risk. S&P 500 next lower target Based on this pattern, TradingShot noted that the S&P 500 could find a long-term accumulation zone between 5,700 and 5,500, aligning with the Fibonacci target and a typical correction range while remaining slightly above the 200-week average. If the index falls to the lower end of the projection, it would imply an 18% drop from the last closing value of 6,716. S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Google Finance This outlook comes at an interesting time, considering the index has traded in a narrow range this…
Filed under: News - @ March 18, 2026 11:22 am