The post Polymarket ‘Informed’ Traders Earned $143M in Abnormal Profits Since 2024, Research Finds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

A new research report claims that a small group of “informed” traders on Polymarket have extracted $143 million in abnormal profits since 2024, raising fresh questions about fairness and information asymmetry on the leading blockchain-based prediction market platform. $143 Million in Abnormal Profits: What the Research Found The study, reported by Odaily, found that traders with apparent information advantages earned $143 million in returns that exceed what an efficient market would predict. In financial research, “abnormal profits” refers to gains above and beyond what normal risk-adjusted returns would produce. The finding covers Polymarket activity since 2024, a period during which the platform saw explosive growth driven largely by betting markets tied to the U.S. presidential election cycle. The term “informed traders” in this context does not necessarily imply illegal activity. It describes participants who consistently trade with an apparent edge, whether from superior analysis, faster access to public information, or early knowledge of outcomes. A Pattern of Concentrated Gains and Retail Losses This research adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that Polymarket’s gains are concentrated among a small elite. Separate reporting found that 70% of Polymarket traders lost money, with the top fraction of accounts capturing most of the platform’s profits. A Columbia University study previously estimated that 25% of Polymarket trades are inflated, suggesting that a portion of platform activity may not reflect genuine forecasting demand. Concerns about bot-like activity have also surfaced. DL News reported that Polymarket users lost millions to bot-like bettors over the past year, pointing to automated strategies that may exploit slower retail participants. In a separate incident, CoinDesk reported apparent insider trading on a Polymarket market that was itself designed to detect insider trading, highlighting the difficulty of policing information asymmetry on decentralized platforms. What Informed Trading Means for Prediction Market Reliability…

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Filed under: News - @ March 28, 2026 9:22 am