The post AUD/USD Forecast: Defends 200-hour EMA/38.2% Fibo. confluence support appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

The AUD/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week, though it lacks follow-through and recovers around 40 pips from the Asian session low levels below the 0.7000 psychological mark. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7030 area, still down 0.50% for the day, amid a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade. High-level negotiations between the US and Iran ended without a breakthrough, despite nearly 21 hours of intense discussions over the weekend, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said that the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This, in turn, tempers investors’ appetite for riskier assets, which provides a goodish lift to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and exerts heavy pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, a sharp intraday rally in Crude Oil prices revives inflationary concerns, reaffirming bets for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) and triggering a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields. This turns out to be another factor that benefits the buck. That said, reports that regional countries are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table within days keep the door open for further diplomacy, and cap the USD. This, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tilt, lends support to the AUD/USD pair. From a technical perspective, spot prices rebound from a confluence support, comprising the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the late March low. This suggests that buyers are defending the 0.7000 area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory toward the high 30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)…

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Filed under: News - @ April 13, 2026 1:22 am