How Is The Holiday Season Going So Far? Black Friday Results And More
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Holiday shopping contradictions abound. Online or in store? How about at the same time? getty Now that the dust has settled from Black Friday Weekend, it’s a good time to check in on how the holiday season is going. After Cyber Monday, this week and the next take a dip before the procrastinators start getting it into gear. So how are things going? Economic Indicators I thought that the news that the US economy grew by 5.2% in Q3 would be major news, but at least in the retail bubble I live in, it turned out to barely register. Depending on your outlook, the news is either great, that the economy continues to be resilient, or it’s bad news because it means the economy has not cooled enough to encourage the Fed to start cutting rates. No one seemed to cover the GDP growth except Business Insider who highlighted a note from MacQuarrie Group. The note pulled forward gross domestic income (GDI) and looked at it in conjunction with GDP. GDI measures total compensation paid towards production vs. GDP measures the total value of the economy. Theoretically they should track, but right now income is lagging “if not in a recession.” MacQuarrie Group said this gap hasn’t been this big since the 2007-08 Great Recession. The Conference Board updated the Consumer Confidence Index for November. The Present Situation index inched up, but the Expectations Index, which looks at the short term future, went up by a lot – from 72.7 in October to 77.8. Consumers saying their personal finances were “good” went up while those saying they were bad went down and confidence in future business conditions went up. The Conference Board reminded us that below 80 still typically signals a looming recession and that they expect a short, shallow…
Filed under: News - @ December 3, 2023 7:48 pm