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As global tensions simmer in the Middle East, the oil market continues to act like a deal is not just possible, but likely. WTI Crude is trading at $73.01, up just 1.73% on the day, even as some of Iran’s largest oil and gas facilities lie damaged or inactive and U.S. President Donald Trump publicly warned, “everyone evacuate Tehran immediately.” Despite headline-level escalation, the market reaction remains subdued. In fact, the modest uptick in crude suggests that traders, and likely large funds, are still pricing in a short-lived, politically managed conflict, rather than a full-blown energy crisis. On Monday, Trump denied reports that he had offered a formal peace proposal to Iran. But oil hasn’t surged. It hasn’t even cracked $75. This is where the disconnect becomes interesting. What does the market know? Some analysts are openly asking the question: Why is oil falling, or barely moving, when key production infrastructure is offline? Alister Berkeley, Managing Director at financial advisory firm Berkeley Advisory, believes the market is betting on diplomacy — or at least a fast political containment. “If last-ditch talks break down, I’ve got oil at ~$88 (bull case), and if a deal gets done, then ~$64 (bear case). Base case: $73.50,” Berkeley said, calling it an “event-driven short-term view in the fog of war.” Predicting the oil price in the fog of war and with all the posturing, positioning, religious extremism, and sabre rattling is a fool’s errand, but here goes #oil pic.twitter.com/aCNraIbWwj — Alister Berkeley (@alisterberkeley) June 17, 2025 AI oil price prediction Meanwhile, Finbold asked AI to generate predictive price targets for WTI Crude by July 1, modeling three scenarios: By July 1, 2025, AI modeling forecasts WTI crude to trade in three distinct ranges depending on how the Iran–Israel conflict unfolds. If tensions escalate further,…

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Filed under: News - @ June 17, 2025 11:28 am