The post Bitcoin All-Time High in 2025? Expert Sees 77% Chance appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

According to a mathematical analysis by financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of reclaiming its all-time high (ATH) this year. His outlook adds to other experts’ predictions, who see a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising M2 global liquidity as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s next bull run. Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High in 2025?  In a detailed post on X, Krueger applied the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to estimate the probability of Bitcoin rising from its current price of around $85,000 to $108,000 by 2025. For context, GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to represent the behavior of asset prices in finance. The model assumes that the logarithm of the asset price follows a Brownian motion with drift. In simpler terms, this means that the asset price has two components: A deterministic trend (drift) represents the asset’s expected return over time. It is often expressed as a constant percentage rate. A random component (stochastic part) accounts for the volatility or unpredictability of asset price. It is modeled as a Wiener process (i.e., random fluctuations). GBM serves in various financial applications, including pricing options, forecasting future asset prices, and assessing portfolio risks.  For his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. This yielded a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $108,000. However, he then adjusted the model to incorporate the coin’s historical growth trend, applying a 40% power law drift. “This increases the mathematical odds to 77%. ChatGPT ran a simulation which confirms this result,” Krueger stated. The analyst’s revised forecast challenges figures on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the odds of BTC hitting an ATH before 2026 are much lower at just 52%.  “This is wrong and can be arbitraged by dynamic hedging,”…

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Filed under: News - @ April 14, 2025 11:26 am