Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Cycle Peak Model Suggests $146,000 Cycle Top
TLDR
Bitcoin is currently trading around $110,000, down over 1% in the past week despite a Federal Reserve interest rate cut
Multiple analysts including Bitwise Asset Management and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson believes Bitcoin’s current cycle peak could land between $143,000 and $146,000
Wedson’s Max Intersect SMA Model suggests the market is in its final distribution phase before a potential bear market
Experts recommend dollar-cost averaging for Bitcoin purchases rather than trying to time specific price targets
Bitcoin continues to trade around $110,000 after dropping below this psychological level earlier in the week. The price action comes despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision on October 29.
The modest price movements have raised questions about the current market cycle’s strength. Trading data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin down over 1% in the past seven days.
Several major financial institutions have issued price predictions for Bitcoin through the end of 2025. Bitwise Asset Management published a 2025 outlook calling for Bitcoin to trade above $200,000 by year’s end.
The investment firm points to expanding spot exchange-traded fund footprints and mainstream distribution as key catalysts. Bitwise also projects Bitcoin could surpass $1 million by 2029.
Standard Chartered’s digital assets team released similar estimates earlier this month. The bank sees a path to $200,000 by the end of 2025, highlighting ETF inflows and shrinking float as supporting factors.
Bitcoin to hit $200,000 per year end, per Standard Chartered.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 10, 2025
Brokerage firm Bernstein has also proposed a $200,000 target for this market cycle. The firm frames this as a conservative estimate given institutional adoption and ETF momentum.
The Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, marking approximately the midpoint of the four-year cycle. This timing aligns with Bernstein’s $200,000 projection timeframe.
Alternative Price Peak Analysis
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson offered a different perspective on October 31. He predicts Bitcoin’s cycle peak could range between $143,000 and $146,000.
Are we just days away from a possible new Bitcoin ATH? 👀
If we base it on Alphractal’s most intriguing metric, the top hasn’t happened yet.
Since the last time I mentioned the Max Intersect SMA Model, BTC jumped from $60K to $62K, and once it gets close to $68K, that could mark… https://t.co/gun3rqLB3G pic.twitter.com/ZFKauORxVA
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 31, 2025
Wedson bases his analysis on the Max Intersect SMA Model. This model has accurately identified price peaks in previous Bitcoin cycles.
The Alphractal CEO believes the market is currently in its final distribution phase. The Bitcoin Smart Model price currently sits at $62,664, having recently climbed from around $60,000.
Wedson states that when this Smart Model price approaches $68,000, it could signal the exact timing of a new all-time high. He describes the current sideways price movement as the market hunting for liquidity during the distribution phase.
Market Dynamics and Investment Approaches
Daily Bitcoin issuance dropped to around 450 coins after the most recent halving. This represents a 50% reduction in new supply entering the market.
The total Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million coins. Many of these coins have been lost or rendered inaccessible over time.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy
Financial experts suggest dollar-cost averaging as an investment approach for Bitcoin. This strategy involves making regular purchases regardless of price movements.
This method aims to capture long-term value trends without the emotional difficulty of timing market peaks. Investors can set up automated weekly or monthly purchases that fit their budget.
The strategy remains effective whether Bitcoin trades below or above $200,000. Some investors also plan opportunistic purchases during major price pullbacks.
Wedson warns that a bear market could arrive sooner than many expect. He notes that many investors are confident Bitcoin will reach $250,000, which he describes as typical behavior during a distribution phase.
Bitcoin currently trades at $110,120, showing a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours. The modest daily gain does not offset the cryptocurrency’s weekly losses.
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Filed under: News - @ November 2, 2025 7:25 am