Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Why Whales Selling to Retail Investors Could Spell Trouble
TLDR
Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC) have sold approximately 32,500 Bitcoin since October 12, while retail investors aggressively buy the dip
Bitcoin dropped from $115,000 to $98,000 between mid-October and November 4, a decline of around 15%, though it has since recovered to around $102,000-$103,000
Santiment warns that when whales sell while retail buys, it creates a cautionary signal, as prices historically follow whale behavior rather than retail
Bitcoin is currently sitting nearly 20% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6
Analysts are divided on near-term outlook, with some expecting consolidation while others see potential for new highs if ETF inflows return and macro conditions improve
Bitcoin is showing a concerning pattern between different types of investors. Sentiment platform Santiment has identified what it calls a “major divergence” between large holders and small traders.
Source: Santiment
Since October 12, Bitcoin whales have sold approximately 32,500 coins. These whales are defined as wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC. At the same time, small retail wallets have been buying aggressively.
Santiment issued a clear warning about this pattern. The platform stated that prices historically tend to follow the direction of whales, not retail investors. The current split between these groups represents a “cautionary signal.”
During this period of whale selling, Bitcoin’s price fell from $115,000 to $98,000 by November 4. This represents a decline of around 15%. The price has since recovered to approximately $103,780.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now sitting nearly 20% below its all-time high. Bitcoin reached above $126,000 on October 6 before beginning its descent.
Understanding the Recent Decline
Wall Street analysts attribute the price slide to several factors. Early adopters have been offloading their large holdings. Research from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel shows that net sales from long-term holders have exceeded 1 million Bitcoin since late June.
A massive liquidation of leveraged crypto positions on October 10 also impacted the market. Bitcoin struggled to find support after breaking below key levels of $117,000 and then $112,000.
Markus Thielen from 10X Research told Yahoo Finance that Bitcoin appears to be in a bear market. His firm predicted last month that Bitcoin would fall to $100,000. They now believe the market may be “a few weeks away” from reaching a buyable bottom.
Thielen warned there is a risk of further correction. He noted there is an “air pocket” below $93,000 with limited support. He suggested the price could potentially reach the $70,000 level.
The dollar’s recent strength could pose another challenge for crypto markets. A continued rally in the greenback may create headwinds for Bitcoin.
Mixed Analyst Predictions
Not all analysts share the same bearish view. Bitfinex analysts expect near-term consolidation and volatility rather than a clear sprint to new highs. They believe ETF inflows in early October pushed the price to around $125,000 before macro shocks and profit-taking knocked it back.
On Nov. 7 (ET), U.S. bitcoin spot ETFs recorded total net outflows of $558 million, with all 12 bitcoin ETFs posting outflows and none seeing net inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $46.6245 million. Solana spot ETFs, meanwhile, posted $12.69 million in net… pic.twitter.com/ddYIv9ri8a
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 8, 2025
On Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a six-day outflow streak. During those six days, the ETFs saw $2.04 billion in outflows according to Farside data.
Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin may have a chance to climb toward $130,000 under certain conditions. This would require spot Bitcoin ETF inflows to return above $1 billion per week and improved macro conditions.
Jake Kennis from Nansen offered a measured perspective. He acknowledged that while Bitcoin has historically posted year-over-year gains, recent market structure breakdown makes near-term gains less probable. However, he said there is still room for meaningful upside into year-end if momentum shifts.
JPMorgan provided a more optimistic outlook in a Wednesday note. The bank said the deleveraging episode that sent Bitcoin lower in October “is largely behind us.”
JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that rising gold volatility has made Bitcoin more attractive to investors. This comparison implies the price could reach as high as $170,000 over the next 6-12 months.
Several factors could lift Bitcoin prices going forward. A potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December could provide support. The reopening of the US government could also help, as some strategists expect additional liquidity from government spending to flow back into markets.
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Filed under: News - @ November 8, 2025 7:25 am