Bitcoin enters a high-risk window as credit stress builds beneath a record 206% stock bubble
The post Bitcoin enters a high-risk window as credit stress builds beneath a record 206% stock bubble appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin is entering a period where macro sequencing matters more than narrative. Equity markets are trading near record valuations, real yields remain elevated, and credit markets are expanding into increasingly opaque corners of the financial system. None of these conditions guarantees an imminent break. But together they form the backdrop for what could become a high-volatility window for risk assets. For Bitcoin, the key question centers on whether stress emerges in the financial plumbing beneath elevated asset valuations and how quickly policymakers move to contain it. Macro strategist Michael Pento describes the current setup as a “triple bubble”: equities priced near historic extremes, housing constrained by mortgage rates near 6%, and private credit racing toward $2 trillion in assets under management. The label is provocative, but the framework is useful because it emphasizes sequencing. If credit fractures first, liquidity evaporates, and Bitcoin likely sells off alongside everything else. If policy support arrives before a fracture spreads, Bitcoin may instead behave as a high-beta liquidity trade, rebounding faster than traditional risk assets. The system rarely breaks because valuations look stretched. It breaks when credit and bond plumbing force selling, and Bitcoin’s 24/7 liquidity means it trades both the panic and the rescue harder than almost anything else. Recent data shows stress signals accumulating without yet tripping a fracture. The ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread registered 2.95% on Feb. 23, still tight relative to crisis regimes. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet stood at $6.613 trillion on Feb. 18, up roughly $28.8 billion over four weeks, a modest expansion that doesn’t signal emergency liquidity. Real yields, measured by the 10-year TIPS yield, hovered around 1.80% on Feb. 20, elevated enough to pressure non-yielding assets. Stablecoin market capitalization sat at approximately $308.8 billion with a 30-day change of -0.18%, essentially flat. Spot…
Filed under: News - @ February 25, 2026 10:22 am