The post Bitcoin eyes CPI test as shutdown clouds Fed rate outlook appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin is bracing for the release of the September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Oct. 24, the first major data point since the federal shutdown began. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter emphasized the importance of this update, noting that it will be the first CPI release on a Friday since January 2018 and comes just five days before the Federal Reserve’s Oct 29 meeting. Moreover, with the Labor Department halting all other major data releases until the shutdown ends, this CPI report will stand alone as the Fed’s key inflation gauge. That isolation raises the stakes as there will be no fresh jobs, payroll, or producer-price data to balance the picture. Inflation forecast The most recent CPI report showed US inflation at 2.9% in August, a slight uptick from 2.7% the previous month. Considering this, Wells Fargo economists now expect September’s reading to rise modestly to 3.1%, still within a range consistent with gradual disinflation. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, are projected to remain steady, signaling that inflation pressures are easing but not gone. Across financial markets, traders are already positioning for potential policy easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures data show a 99% probability that the Fed will cut rates at its Oct. 29 meeting and an 85% chance of another reduction in December. US Interest Rate Cut Possibility for Oct. 29. Source: (CME FedWatch) Notably, a softer CPI reading would likely reinforce that outlook and weaken the dollar, while a hotter-than-expected print could briefly revive rate-hike speculation. Impact on Bitcoin Kautious Data analysts said the CPI’s impact on crypto remains direct as the current “thinner macro signals can be a near‑term bullish setup for crypto narratives while adding tail risk for broader markets.” According to the firm, a softer core reading below 0.3%…

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Filed under: News - @ October 21, 2025 6:23 pm