The post Bitcoin Faces Crucial Price Test, Analysts Say On-Chain and Charts Align appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin is nearing a decisive zone as on-chain data and technical analysis align around the same price level, placing increased pressure on short-term holders and setting the stage for a potential directional move. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, the average realized price of Bitcoin’s short-term holders currently sits near $102,000. This metric represents the aggregate cost basis of coins acquired by newer market participants and often acts as a behavioral pivot point during periods of consolidation. Key Takeaways Darkfost highlights $102,000 as the short-term holder realized price and key on-chain level Bitcoin is trading below this zone, where break-even selling pressure may emerge Merlijn The Trader points to a double bottom pattern targeting $110,000 if $102,000 breaks Darkfost explains that the calculation used in his analysis excludes a large historical Bitcoin movement involving roughly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase-related activity. By removing this distortion, the resulting data offers a clearer picture of how current short-term holders are positioned relative to price. With Bitcoin trading below this level, short-term holders are effectively underwater. Historically, when price approaches this cost basis during broader uptrends, it has frequently marked a zone of accumulation rather than sustained breakdowns. However, this dynamic changes if market conditions deteriorate or sentiment weakens. Market behavior shows little hesitation so far Despite trading below the short-term holder cost basis, recent price action suggests limited fear among newer participants. Short-term holders have continued to take profits during brief rebounds, indicating confidence in near-term price recovery rather than panic-driven selling. Darkfost notes that the real test will occur once these short-lived gains are exhausted. If price repeatedly fails to reclaim the $102,000 level, short-term holders may begin exiting positions at break-even, potentially reinforcing resistance. Conversely, a clean move above this level would suggest renewed conviction and improved market structure. Technical…

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Filed under: News - @ January 16, 2026 5:24 pm