Bitcoin Futures Show Fear As Risk US Trade War Resumes
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Key takeaways: Derivatives data show limited confidence among Bitcoin traders despite strong ETF inflows, keeping downside risks on the table. Gold’s surge and falling Treasury yields highlight growing investor fear as fiscal stress and trade disputes weigh on traders’ sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to regain bullish momentum since reaching its $126,219 all-time high on Monday. Strong spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows point to solid institutional demand, but weakness in BTC derivatives metrics suggests traders remain uncertain about whether the $117,000 level will hold. Bitcoin 60-day futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas.ch Monthly Bitcoin futures are trading at a 7% premium compared to spot markets, showing little change over the week. Periods of strong optimism typically push this premium above 10% as demand for leveraged long positions rises. However, data indicates traders’ confidence has not improved, even after Bitcoin’s 14% rally between Sept. 28 and Tuesday, as the indicator remains near the same level as a month ago. Bitcoin lags behind as gold hits record amid US-China tensions Gold surged to a record high near $4,050 on Wednesday, signaling that investors are seeking safety as the United States faces a fiscal crisis and slowing economic growth. Renowned portfolio manager and billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the risks from spiraling US debt pose a “threat to the monetary order,” according to Bloomberg. US President Donald Trump accused China of imposing new port fees on rare earth mineral exports, threatening a “massive increase” in Chinese import tariffs in response. The S&P 500 index fell 1.9% as investors grew concerned that escalating trade war tensions could hurt corporate earnings, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector. While Bitcoin is often viewed as a form of digital gold, its correlation with the S&P 500 remains significant, with the rolling 40-day relationship currently at 73%. Traders’…
Filed under: News - @ October 11, 2025 5:16 pm