The post Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Adler AM says Bitcoin’s price advance is spot-led, with its derivatives pressure index in “Expansion (Moderate)”, negative divergence, and no signs of euphoric leverage yet.​ Summary Adler AM’s composite derivatives pressure index, normalized on a 0–5 Z-Score scale, has turned positive after December’s flat-to-negative readings.​ Divergence between price and open interest is negative, meaning BTC price has risen faster than OI, a classic signature of a healthier, spot-led rally.​ The current regime is “Expansion (Moderate)”; risk rises if OI accelerates, divergence flips sharply positive, and liquidations spike without fresh spot support. Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered amid a return of risk appetite, with market analysis indicating the rally is being led by spot trading rather than leveraged positions, according to research from Adler AM. Where does BTC price head into 2026? The composite derivatives pressure index has returned to positive territory following December’s deleveraging period, the analysis stated. The spot market is currently leading the rally rather than leverage, representing what analysts characterized as a structurally healthier dynamic. The market has transitioned into a moderate expansion regime, with price growth outpacing the buildup of derivatives positions, indicating a spot-driven nature of the move, according to the report. The composite index, which ranges from 0 to 5 and is normalized via a 90-day Z-Score, reflects aggregate derivatives pressure including open interest momentum, price momentum, divergence, acceleration, and absolute position levels. The index entered positive territory after an extended period around zero and below in December, the analysis showed. The current reading indicates moderate but not extreme optimism, remaining far from the “overheated” zone above +1.5, according to the report. The regime is classified as Expansion (Moderate), meaning both price and open interest are rising simultaneously. A positive Z-Score confirms the return of constructive sentiment in the derivatives market, the analysis stated.…

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Filed under: News - @ January 7, 2026 10:26 am