The post Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2026: Three Scenarios to Watch appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin Bitcoin’s road ahead looks less like a straight line and more like a fork with three very different paths. A new market study from CryptoQuant argues that while a surge toward $170,000 cannot be ruled out this year, it sits firmly at the edge of probability rather than at the center of expectations. Instead of focusing on price targets alone, the analysis frames Bitcoin’s outlook around liquidity conditions, policy timing, and investor behavior. Right now, those forces are pulling in different directions, keeping BTC trapped in an unstable balance rather than pushing it into a fresh bull cycle. Key takeaways: A rally toward $170,000 is possible but remains the least likely scenario this year. Bitcoin is currently stuck in a volatile range without clear bullish momentum. The most probable outcome is extended range trading driven by uneven ETF flows. A macro shock or recession risk could still push Bitcoin into a deeper correction. The conditions behind a $170,000 breakout The most aggressive upside scenario depends on a rapid shift in macro conditions. CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin would need a combination of early monetary easing and steady ETF demand to escape its current range. If liquidity improves quickly and ETF inflows stop coming in bursts and start showing consistency, upside momentum could accelerate. In that environment, Bitcoin could reclaim higher valuation zones and stretch well beyond six figures, with $120,000 to $170,000 emerging as a potential extension range. Anything above that would require an almost perfect alignment of tailwinds, including supportive economic data, strong on-chain accumulation, and reduced leverage-driven volatility. At present, those requirements are not being met. Signals from the Federal Reserve suggest policymakers are in no rush to resume rate cuts after easing three times last year. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee reinforced expectations that policy…

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Filed under: News - @ January 2, 2026 7:15 am