The post Bitcoin risk-reward has shifted after recent selloff appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin’s recent price decline has prompted market analysts to assess whether a price floor is forming, with one prominent on-chain researcher stating the risk-reward profile has shifted following the selloff. Summary “Checkmate” Check suggests Bitcoin has entered “deep value” territory. Recent selloff capitulation losses resemble those seen at 2022 cycle lows, indicating a potential market bottom forming with a 60% probability. Bitcoin’s price may be forming a bottom, but further declines are possible as market sentiment shifts. James “Checkmate” Check, a former lead researcher at Glassnode and author of Check On Chain, told What Bitcoin Did host Danny Knowles that Bitcoin entered “deep value” territory across multiple mean-reversion frameworks when it dropped into recent price zones, according to statements made on the podcast. Check noted that capitulation-style losses spiked to levels last seen at the 2022 cycle lows. Check stated that if Bitcoin is not trending toward zero, the statistical setup appears increasingly asymmetric after the selloff. The analyst said the current environment represents a time for market participants to pay attention rather than lose focus. The researcher said he was focused on market structure rather than identifying a single forced seller behind the price movement. Check offered a probabilistic assessment, stating that the odds of a bottom forming have increased significantly. He said the probability that the market has already set a meaningful low stands at more than 50%, likely around 60%, according to his analysis. The analyst assigned low odds to Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high within the year without a major macroeconomic shift or significant market event. Regarding exchange-traded funds, Check cited billions in outflows during the drawdown, but characterized the situation as positioning unwinds rather than structural failure. He noted that at an earlier peak, approximately 62% of cumulative inflows were underwater, while ETF assets…

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Filed under: News - @ February 12, 2026 9:24 pm