The market mood surrounding Bitcoin has sunk to a level not seen in months, and yet, in an almost paradoxical turn of events, that dismal sentiment may be setting up the cryptocurrency for its next big rally.

Discussions happening online around Bitcoin now have the almost eerie feel of being perfectly split in half between people with very bullish views and those with bearish ones. We haven’t seen this kind of appearance of market indecision in quite some time, since back on April 6, when Bitcoin felt the immediate aftershocks of former President Trump’s tariff announcement.

Weekly Bitcoin fees rose to the largest value this year, fueled by regulatory clarity and high institutional demand pic.twitter.com/7lAW3RatxG

— Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock) (@SentoraHQ) June 20, 2025

Discussion around Bitcoin online now seems almost perfectly split.

Although it appears that retail investors are losing confidence in the market, the large-scale holders are doing just the opposite. On-chain data reveals that in only the last 10 days, 231 new Bitcoin wallets holding 10 BTC or more have been created. This latest accumulation by the big fish in the Bitcoin pond—often dubbed “whales”—is another sign that the retail investor seems to be panic selling to the benefit of the large-scale holders. Historically, we have seen these periods of whale accumulation in tandem with retail investor panic prior to major price increases.

Bitcoin sentiment is at its lowest in months, but that might actually be bullish

Right now, for every 1 bullish #Bitcoin comment online, there’s ~1 bearish one, a split not seen since April 6, when Trump’s tariffs triggered market fear.

Meanwhile, 231 new wallets with 10+ $BTC… pic.twitter.com/145Pve6bK4

— CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) June 20, 2025

Conversely, over 37,000 small holders have left the market in the same stretch of time. Their exits show that small, everyday investors are becoming concerned. some of them, no doubt, are reacting emotionally to the current “vibe” in the market. This is somewhat ironic, as the Venn diagram of small holder and small investor pretty much overlaps: both groups are just trying to get by on a subsistence-level basis in the crypto world. Yet the trajectory of daily exits from the market pretty much ensures that the price of BTC continues to appreciate.

Institutional Demand Pushes Fees to Annual High

In addition to user behavior with wallets, there has also been a detectable shift in network activity. The average transaction fee being paid by Bitcoin users has reached its highest level of 2023. While that is often looked at as a negative thing, the reasons behind the rise in fees are much more positive. They are, in fact, a direct reflection of a resurgence in institutional demand that is being accompanied by transacting regulatory clarity in a number of key jurisdictions.

In the last week, the long liquidation dominance metric has grown from 0% to +10%, while BTC has held within a narrow range of $103K–$106K without significant price corrections. The increase in long position liquidation share without a sharp price crash indicates sustained buyer… pic.twitter.com/dFra1pLV1s

— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 21, 2025

Greater fees frequently indicate greater network use and, by extension, greater demand for Bitcoin, whether for trading, settlement, or whatever building reasonable folk might be doing with the Bitcoin network. And right now, the fee environment is suggesting a level of activity that is hard to ignore.

We can also juxtapose this with whale accumulation. Indeed, there is a contrasting narrative to the current stock market saga: that people or entities with serious money are buying up Bitcoin and not flipping it.

Futures Market Builds Pressure Without Breaking

At the same time, the derivatives market is developing and is offering more clues about where the Bitcoin price might be headed. For the past week, the long liquidation dominance metric—this measures how much of the liquidation activity comes from long positions—has been growing, and it has grown quite a bit. It has risen from 0% to now over 10%. And this is happening while Bitcoin’s price is quite stable. It’s in a very narrow range right now from $103,000 to $106,000.

Usually, a sharp increase in long liquidations would indicate that prices are soon going to drop because positions are being forcefully closed. However, we are not seeing a corresponding price dip when liquidation volumes spike. This absence of a price dip accompanying a major surge in long liquidations is a sign that there is still a lot of buying support in the market—buoying price levels and holding the structure of the market up.

Analysts who follow the markets closely point out that if the long liquidation dominance metric increases by 5% to 7% more, it could create a washout effect. This would clear out any remaining leveraged long positions in the market and shift the overall sentiment in the market to something more bearish. Once this metric starts to decrease again, it could indicate that we’re nearing the end of the washout and that a potential turn in the market might be underway.

Conclusion

Even though the current state of Bitcoin sentiment seems bleak, looking into the underlying metrics reveals an altogether different narrative. The all-important Bitcoin whales have been busy not just stopping but reversing an almost 18-month-old pattern of accumulation.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ June 22, 2025 4:22 pm