Bitcoin achieved a mighty performance in May, climbing 11.1% through the month as investors reacted favorably to not-so-bad-macroeconomic-news and a return of risk-on sentiment across financial markets.

The leading cryptocurrency surged to an all-time high of $111,784, as its most recent price chart summarily dismissed any worries about a global trade war, and as the S&P 500 and other traditional equity markets have shown renewed life.

One of the most bullish months in recent history for Bitcoin occurred when its price skyrocketed. The renewed confidence among both retail and institutional investors was evident. The risk-on sentiment was back, and those looser macro economic concerns definitely allowed capital to flood back in to risk assets, with Bitcoin enjoying a tip from those broader trends.

Bitcoin Gained 11.1% in May

May was a bullish month for #Bitcoin, driven by easing concerns over a global trade war and strong performance from the S&P 500. Supported by these favorable conditions, Bitcoin managed to reach a new all-time high of $111,784 during the month. pic.twitter.com/ekNcfgHsHO

— CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) June 2, 2025

Even though Bitcoin’s price performance grabbed the headlines, other developments also took place beneath the surface— notable ones that involve the behavior of long-term holders of BTC. In my view, this group of holders—some of whom have had their Bitcoin for a period of three to five years— is a crucial cohort in the near-term assessment of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and long-term market cycle performance.

Long-Term Holders Begin to Shift

On-chain analytics often designate the 3–5 year holding cohort as one of Bitcoin’s most strategic investor segments. They certainly act like it. After all, for historical data that we have on this group, the holding cohort just hit an all-time low last reached back in March 2017—on November 9, 2024, to be exact—in terms of a peak supply control level.

Still, the holders in question resumed selling in April 2025—when Bitcoin’s price was again rising—that is, they resumed selling portions of their total holdings, which had been reduced in earlier rounds of profit-taking and had, to my mind, earlier looked set to become a set of longer-term HODLers. As of the time of this writing, holders in this group only represent 11.9% of the total Bitcoin supply.

3–5y $BTC holders reached an ATH of 15.7% of supply on Nov 9, 2024 – the highest since Mar 2017. They began selling soon after, paused, then resumed in Apr 2025. Now at 11.9%, their supply share remains well above the ~3% cycle low – still a major overhang. pic.twitter.com/UOu1KevBsE

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 2, 2025

Even after this decrease, the level is still well above the roughly 3% lows seen during previous market cycles. This indicates that, while some long-term holders have taken profits, a good number of them still seems to be holding out for higher prices.

This group carries a strong influence. They possess nearly 12% of Bitcoin’s total supply, a hefty sum that constitutes a large overhang likely to pressure the market if the holders decide to go in the same direction as the other large-scale sellers. The good news is that these folks seem content to sit on their Bitcoin. Either they’re not inclined to sell en masse, or they have other Bitcoin plans that entail not selling their Bitcoin anytime soon. And that suggests that if they have plans to hold their Bitcoin, it likely bodes well for the future price of Bitcoin. Because if it takes a certain price level to entice these holders to sell, and they haven’t sold yet, then Bitcoin is likely to trend upward until it reaches that certain price level.

Reading the Realized Cap HODL Waves

To understand this dynamic more deeply, analysts commonly use tools such as Realized Cap HODL Waves to track the held value among different age cohorts of Bitcoin holders. Using these metrics allows us to glean some understanding of when it might be that our long-term investors are entering or exiting the market. Even better, it gives us a view of how their price correlation might be aligning with the recent movements we’ve seen.

The most recent activity reduction on the part of holders of 3-5 years indicates what could be an exhausting phase. These holders, having withstood past bear markets and price consolidation events, typically sell into market strength and reap the rewards of several years’ worth of gains and what they perceive to be high valuations. The not-so-recent uptick in the price of Bitcoin may have coaxed a few more of these holders to liquidate and take profits, but the uptick has not brought out a full-scale selling on the part of these holders.

Nevertheless, the 11.9% of the total supply that these holders control means they can still influence prices pretty might as well talk about maintaining significant influence over price direction. The coming months will see this segment of the holder base confronted with a choice: stay absolutely immobile in the face of a price uptick, or get bearish. This segment undoubtedly re-owns enough Bitcoin to make either of those choices not too hard to maintain.

Market players will keep a close eye on potential macroeconomic policy shift indicators, institutional demand, and on-chain trend data. Although the rally in May was certainly an encouraging sign for bulls, the supply overhang from long-term holders remains a wild card that could inject some volatility into the price of Bitcoin as it seeks to establish a base above $110,000 and push into new all-time high territory.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ June 3, 2025 7:25 am