Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin surging toward $3.4 million if Trump enacts yield curve control by 2028.

Buffalo Bill Bessent’s plan echoes WWII-era policies that shifted Fed control to the Treasury.

Regional banks and small businesses could benefit, while U.S. debt and inflation risks mount.

Arthur Hayes has outlined a dramatic outlook for Bitcoin’s future tied directly to U.S. monetary policy. He predicts that if Donald Trump implements yield curve control (YCC) under Treasury Secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent’s vision, the Federal Reserve could unleash more than $15 trillion in fresh credit by 2028.

Such a move, Hayes argued, could drive Bitcoin to $3.4 million, well beyond its current level of around $115,000.

While Hayes made clear the figure is directional rather than absolute, he stressed that in an era of heavy money printing, Bitcoin remains the strongest asset to preserve value.

His scenario points to the largest credit creation since World War II, when the Fed capped short-term Treasury yields at 0.675% and longer bonds at 2.5% to finance U.S. wartime spending.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Outlook: Stability, Powell’s Comments, and Q4 Breakout Hopes

Bessent’s Push to Reshape the Yield Curve

Bessent’s economic approach involves steepening the yield curve, such as during the 1942–1951 era, when the conditions for loans favored mid-sized and smaller-sized banks.

Through the Fed tools, reducing interest on reserves, reducing the rates charged at the discount window, and increasing bond purchases using the balance sheet, the policymakers would reduce the cost of borrowing throughout the maturities.

This shift would allow regional banks to provide credit and profitability to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), employing around 46% of the workforce, but often struggling with access to loans today due to the flat or inverted curve period.

Essentially, the policy would shift financial authority from the institutions of Wall Street to the lenders of Main Street.

But this sort of program would require political maneuvering. Trump would need to install loyalists onto the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as the Federal Open Market Committee to acquire power over interest-rate policy, as well as money printing authority.

Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge

The consequences of this proposal would be severe. By capping production and assuming vast debt, the US government would manage to lower the interest burden, expand the welfare plans, and channel the funds into defense and production.

At the same time, the dollar’s value against gold and other currencies might fall sharply, lowering the price of American exports but raising the risk of domestic inflation.

Here, Bitcoin offers the greatest hedge for Hayes. He argues the precise $3.4 million target may not happen, but the direction is clear: all-time money printing favors limited digital scarcity.

If the US copies the financial approach of the Second World War, Bitcoin would emerge as the greatest winner of the upcoming credit cycle.

Also Read: 25% Bitcoin Strategy: CfC St. Moritz Partners with Sygnum Bank for Stronger Future

---

Filed under: Bitcoin - @ September 23, 2025 8:30 pm