The post Bitcoin’s Early-Year Pattern is Breaking: What History Actually Says  appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

With February now half way through, Bitcoin is on the verge of printing an unfavourable entry in its history book. This is the first year in Bitcoin’s history where both January and February so far are in the red. In order for Bitcoin to avoid this scenario, a monthly close above $78.6K.  However, with momentum turning toward the downside over the past four weeks, the growing likelihood of this pattern breaking is raising serious questions about whether this is a regime shift or just a temporary anomaly.  Q1 has so far been unforgiving for the largest and oldest crypto asset. From the start of the year to today, price has fallen roughly -22%, marking the weakest start to a year since 2018. February in particular has carried the bulk of the drawdown, with Bitcoin down 12.75% for the month. This makes it the third-largest February decline in Bitcoin’s history. The picture looks bleak on the surface as this adds to the idea that something is structurally broken in Bitcoin’s price action.  However, zooming into seasonality trends alone misses the bigger picture. Throughout Bitcoin’s history, sharp drawdowns of over -75% post all time highs are common. Currently, even though sentiment might’ve reached an all time low and on-chain flashing signs of pain, Bitcoin sits at around a 45% correction. The important question here becomes what forces are driving the current sell off and whether this correction still fits within the range of typical post ATH corrections, both in terms of cycle duration and on-chain behaviour.   How Rare is a Red January and February?  The fact is Bitcoin has never registered two monthly red candles at the start of the year. The closest it got to printing such a pattern was back in 2018 which ultimately went on to become a prolonged…

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Filed under: News - @ February 16, 2026 11:27 am