Despite a slowdown in Bitcoin trading activity and rising geopolitical risks, spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain a dominant force in price movements, according to Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33.

In a report published Tuesday, Lunde pointed to a strong 30-day correlation between ETF inflows and BTC returns, with an R² of 0.80—indicating ETF flows explain approximately 80% of price variance over that period.

Over the past month, Bitcoin ETFs added 13,000 BTC, marking the weakest 30-day inflow since April 23, and closely mirroring recent price action.

In contrast, the rapid emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies has had a less consistent impact on BTC pricing. Lunde noted a weaker R² of 0.18 between 30-day returns and corporate BTC acquisitions, reflecting a softer price correlation compared to ETFs.

While established players like Strategy continue to purchase Bitcoin directly from the market using equity or debt funding—affecting demand—many new entrants are relying on in-kind share swaps with existing large holders. One such example is Twenty One, backed by Softbank, which accumulated 37,230 BTC by exchanging shares for coins held by Tether and Bitfinex. These deals generate little to no net market demand, Lunde explained, and may dilute the price impact of treasury purchases.

“With the massive momentum in bitcoin treasury companies of late, more investors are attracted to this trade and may seek to sell BTC spot to participate in ATM offerings or fund enterprises directly in-kind,” Lunde said.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have rattled derivatives markets. Bitcoin briefly dipped to $98,200 last week amid U.S.–Iran conflict fears, before rebounding to $105,000 on ceasefire news. This period saw the largest one-day drop in BTC perpetual futures open interest since August 2024, with 17,394 BTC in liquidated positions, as traders de-risked.

Open interest in perps has now fallen below 260,000 BTC, levels last seen in April, indicating market participants are growing more cautious. While the ceasefire may ease immediate fears, Lunde noted that upcoming events—such as President Trump’s budget bill and the July 9 tariff pause deadline—could sustain elevated Bitcoin volatility.

The post Bitcoin’s Fate Still Tied to ETFs, Not Corporates, K33 Report Finds  appeared first on Coindoo.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ June 25, 2025 2:30 pm