Bitcoin’s Future: Could Trump’s Crypto Executive Order Alter the Four-Year Cycle?
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Is Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle coming to an end with new regulatory changes and market dynamics? Speculative trends suggest that 2025 could see Bitcoin prices soar beyond $200,000, primarily driven by institutional adoption and ETF inflows. Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan remarked, “We’re on the record predicting that bitcoin’s price will double this year to above $200,000,” reflecting a potential shift in market fundamentals. This article explores the potential disruption of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle, predictions for price surges, and insights from industry experts. Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has adhered to a predictable four-year cycle, characterized by three successive years of price gains, followed by significant corrections ranging anywhere from 58% to 74%. This pattern has become ingrained in investor expectations, with 2023 and 2024 projected to bring favorable returns, thus setting the stage for a bullish outlook for 2025. However, the uncertainty surrounding potential market resets in 2026 raises questions among investors. While many point to Bitcoin’s halving events as crucial driving factors in this cycle, Hougan suggests that investor psychology, influenced by high-profile events like exchange failures and regulatory changes, is equally impactful. These elements collectively shape market sentiment and cycle behavior. The Origin of the Current Cycle The present cycle can be traced back to the tumultuous events of 2022, marked by significant collapses such as FTX and Three Arrows Capital. A pivotal moment occurred on March 10, 2023, when Grayscale celebrated a legal victory against the SEC, creating an opening for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Their introduction in January 2024 was a game changer, capturing institutional interest and driving Bitcoin’s price from approximately $22,000 to over $100,000 in just one year, indicating a crucial shift toward mainstream adoption. Future Expectations for the Crypto Market As political and regulatory landscapes evolve in favor of…
Filed under: News - @ January 31, 2025 8:25 am