The post Bitcoin’s Next Cycle Won’t Start in Crypto, Says Arthur Hayes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin Bitcoin’s next major upside phase may have little to do with crypto sentiment, ETFs, or on-chain data. Instead, it could emerge from stress in the global currency system – particularly in the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. That’s the framework laid out by Arthur Hayes, who argues that macro liquidity dynamics, not short-term price momentum, are quietly setting the stage for a renewed Bitcoin rally in 2026. Key Takeaways Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin’s next bull market could be driven by global currency stress rather than crypto-specific factors He believes yen strength may eventually force U.S. liquidity expansion, benefiting scarce assets like Bitcoin Hayes sees 2026 as the likely payoff as macro policy effects filter through markets While many traders interpret yen strength as a threat to risk assets, Hayes believes that view misses the second-order effects. In his analysis, the real story is not the yen itself, but how U.S. monetary authorities might respond if currency pressure intensifies. Why Yen Strength Could Become a Bitcoin Catalyst Hayes’ thesis starts with a simple assumption: sustained moves in major FX pairs rarely happen without policy consequences. If the yen continues to rise aggressively, it increases the likelihood that U.S. institutions step in to stabilize currency markets. That stabilization, according to Hayes, does not happen in a vacuum. Any meaningful response would require the creation or redistribution of dollar liquidity — whether through banking reserves, balance sheet expansion, or indirect intervention mechanisms. From a Bitcoin perspective, that matters far more than short-term volatility. Hayes argues that when dollars are created to manage currency stress, those dollars don’t disappear. They flow outward into global markets, eventually finding their way into scarce assets. Liquidity First, Price Later A key point in Hayes’ argument is timing. He is not calling for…

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Filed under: News - @ January 24, 2026 5:26 pm