Bitcoin’s Volatility Hits Record Low Versus Gold, Raising Doubts Over Future Outperformance
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Bitcoin Bitcoin’s price swings are becoming increasingly subdued compared to gold, reaching their tightest margin on record and sparking debate about the cryptocurrency’s ability to continue outperforming the precious metal. According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, Bitcoin’s 260-day annualized volatility as of August 1 stood at just 2.2 times that of gold — the lowest level ever recorded. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged more than three times the volatility of gold while often delivering higher returns, but this narrowing gap could signal a shift in performance dynamics. McGlone argues that Bitcoin’s reduced volatility removes part of its speculative allure. “The shrinking risk premium is not necessarily a positive sign for those betting on Bitcoin to lead the market,” he suggested. The concern is that, without its characteristic volatility edge, Bitcoin may struggle to decisively outperform gold in the long run. Range-Bound Performance The Bitcoin-to-gold price ratio has remained locked in a sideways range for years, failing to push past key resistance levels since late 2021. Even after BTC surged to a new all-time high above $123,000 earlier in 2025, it still could not break through the upper boundary of the ratio, highlighting gold’s steady competitive strength. Risk-Off Scenarios Could Favor Gold McGlone warns that Bitcoin’s “risk-on” nature could work against it if broader market sentiment turns cautious in the second half of the year. Suppressed volatility in the S&P 500 could revert to its historical average, potentially triggering a pullback in risk assets. In such an environment, gold could benefit from renewed safe-haven demand and might climb beyond $3,500 per ounce — and possibly challenge the $4,000 mark it has been testing. Diverging Outlooks Despite Strong 2025 Gains Both Bitcoin and gold have had a strong year so far. Bitcoin’s rapid climb earlier in 2025 reignited enthusiasm among investors, while…
Filed under: News - @ August 5, 2025 12:23 am