BitMEX Co-Founder Predicts March 2025 Bitcoin Peak, Cites Liquidity Shifts
The post BitMEX Co-Founder Predicts March 2025 Bitcoin Peak, Cites Liquidity Shifts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TLDR Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will peak in March 2025 before a correction Quantitative tightening and tax season in April could stall BTC’s rally The US debt ceiling debate may cause volatility in crypto markets in Q1 Hayes expects a $612B liquidity boost from the Fed and Treasury to fuel Bitcoin He is positioning his investments ahead of the anticipated cycle peak in March In a recent blog post, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and current CIO at Maelstrom, a crypto venture capital firm, shared his prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a local top in March 2025. Hayes attributes this projected peak to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) measures and the annual tax season in the United States. According to Hayes, the removal of approximately $180 billion worth of liquidity due to QT from January to March 2025 will contribute to the anticipated March peak in Bitcoin’s price. He believes that this reduction in liquidity, coupled with the financial pressures of tax season in early April, will act as a net negative for US liquidity, potentially stalling risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Another key factor Hayes highlights is the ongoing debate surrounding the US debt ceiling, which currently stands at $31.5 trillion. If Congress decides to raise the debt ceiling, the US Treasury could resume borrowing, further draining market liquidity. Hayes expects a last-minute deal to be reached once default and shutdown become imminent, leading to an increase in the debt ceiling. In addition to these domestic factors, Hayes also points to anticipated liquidity injections from US financial institutions as a driving force behind Bitcoin’s potential Q1 2025 peak. He identifies two primary sources of liquidity: adjustments to the Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) and drawdowns from the Treasury General Account (TGA).…
Filed under: News - @ January 7, 2025 11:24 pm