TL;DR

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence projects Bitcoin at $10,000 in 2026, a drop of nearly 90%, driven by capital fragmentation across the crypto market.
BTC is set to close 2025 below $90,000 and about 30% under its all-time high; Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in outflows between November and December.
Ed Yardeni expects a rebound supported by AI and equity market inflows, while Arthur Hayes projects BTC at $200,000.

Mike McGlone, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, projects that Bitcoin’s price could fall to $10,000 in 2026, implying a decline of nearly 90% from current levels. His core argument is not tied to a single event, but to a structural pressure: the sustained rise in competition across the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin Would Not Be the Only Asset to Fall

McGlone argues that Bitcoin no longer operates in an environment of relative scarcity. In 2009, it had no competitors. In 2025, it coexists with millions of digital assets that absorb liquidity, attention, and capital. That fragmentation, according to his analysis, limits BTC’s ability to sustain high valuations over time. By contrast, gold competes with only three relatively relevant metals: silver, platinum, and palladium. Under that premise, McGlone projects that gold will surpass $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an additional gain of roughly 10%.

Bitcoin is set to close 2025 trading below $90,000, roughly 30% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Institutional flows reflect a similar pattern. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1 billion in December, adding to the $3.5 billion withdrawn in November, according to DefiLlama data.

Post-Inflation Deflation

McGlone frames this outlook within a cycle he describes as post-inflation deflation. Under this regime, risk assets correct after a prolonged period of monetary expansion. The analyst expects 2026 to be negative not only for BTC, but also for equities, oil, copper, silver, and other assets sensitive to economic growth.

However, other forecasts diverge sharply from the Bloomberg strategist’s view. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research expects a rebound in 2026, supported by productivity gains, the adoption of artificial intelligence, and capital flows into U.S. equities. Foreign investment in U.S. stocks reached about $714 billion in October 2025 and could approach $1 trillion in the coming months.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, outlines an opposing scenario as well. He projects Bitcoin at $200,000 by March, driven by an expansion of Federal Reserve liquidity estimated at $40 billion per month.

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Filed under: News - @ December 29, 2025 3:30 pm