The post BTC Eyes 70% Rally Odds Toward New Highs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Key takeaways: Analyst sees a 70% chance that Bitcoin hits fresh highs within two weeks. Spot ETF inflows and bullish futures premiums reinforce the upside outlook. Internal liquidity near $114,000-$113,000 could spark a brief pullback before a breakout. Bitcoin (BTC) is setting the stage for a potential rally, with analysts pointing to a 70% probability that the cryptocurrency could push toward fresh all-time highs within the next two weeks. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., market conditions are currently balanced and primed for a move higher. Adler Jr. highlights that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts are hovering near zero, indicating that the market is neither overheated nor oversold. With BTC trading just above the STH realized price, the setup suggests a one-to-two-week consolidation phase could precede a breakout. “Uptober incoming,” Adler Jr. noted, pointing to seasonal tailwinds. Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV data. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X Derivatives data further reinforced the constructive outlook. Bitcoin futures are trading at a consistent premium to spot, with the seven-day basis running above the 30-day, a structure typically linked with bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. cautioned that minor overheating signals appeared ahead of the recent FOMC event, where cost basis rose on light volume, suggesting some late-stage positioning. Bitcoin basis: futures to spot% %. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X Still, the base case remains tilted toward strength. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will see a stepwise uptrend or sideways consolidation,” Adler Jr. explained.  Meanwhile, institutional demand remains a firm anchor as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.8 billion in net inflows since Sept. 9, pushing activity decisively into positive territory. With inflows supporting BTC price and technical indicators aligning, traders are bracing for what could be a defining stretch in Bitcoin’s next bullish…

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Filed under: News - @ September 19, 2025 10:26 am