The post BTC’s Down Year Pattern Puts 2026 in Focus appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) ended 2025 slightly in the red with a -6.36% return after a strong start earlier in the year. While the annual loss appears modest, historical patterns suggest that down years have often preceded some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies. Key takeaways: Bitcoin has historically averaged close to 100% gains in the year following a down year. Long-term models project a substantial target near $300,000 if liquidity conditions turn supportive. Bitcoin history hints at upside after rare red years According to Jesse Myers, Bitcoin strategy head at Smarter Web Company, Bitcoin has shown a consistent tendency to recover sharply after negative annual closes. Data from the past decade highlighted four down years: 2014, 2018, 2022 and, most recently, 2025. Bitcoin’s performance after a down year. Source: Jesse Myers/ X The years immediately following those drawdowns delivered gains of 35%, 95% and 156% respectively. Averaged together, these recoveries approach 95%, rounded to a 100% historical benchmark. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the repetition of this pattern continues to shape expectations for 2026. Adding to the longer-term bullish case, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With noted that Bitcoin’s base-case valuation for 2026 sits between $200,000 and $300,000. With’s Bitcoin Decay Channel model uses quantile regression on historical price data to account for diminishing volatility across cycles. Bitcoin Decay Channel. Source: Sminston With/X With explained that the model’s oscillator remains near 20%, a level historically associated with early expansion phases. The projected 2026 target zone contrasts with Bitcoin’s stagnation near $88,000 at the end of 2025, which With attributed to delayed liquidity cycles rather than a definitive cycle peak. Related: 2025 crypto bear market was ‘repricing’ year for institutional capital: Analyst Momentum data signals a cautious market Short-term indicators suggest patience may still be required. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that the 30-day average…

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Filed under: News - @ January 8, 2026 4:21 am