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President Donald Trump (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images Business leaders face monumental economic uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs, immigration policy and regulatory actions. The risk of recession has risen, according to the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller recently said, “Considering all this uncertainty, it is impossible to forecast how the economy will evolve very far into the future.” As an economic forecaster myself, I echo that view. Business leaders, however, cannot throw their hands in the air and shout “I don’t know what to do.” They must make decisions, even if that decision is to not make any changes. And doing nothing may be the worst possible decision. However, a business leader can take steps to support business goals in the midst of this high uncertainty. Review Business Goals In a stressful era, business leaders should remind themselves of their business goals. Some companies have established as a key goal growing market share. Others focus on increasing stock value. Others simply try to reduce the risk of bankruptcy. Unless recent policy changes justify a change in goals, it will be sufficient to just keep the pre-existing goals in mind. But that goal should be in mind throughout the rest of the uncertainty analysis. Assess Specific Business Risk With so much change, with much of the change highly political, it’s easy to get caught up in general frustration or euphoria. Instead, business leaders should begin by assessing specific issues. Direct effects of tariffs will probably be the first issue to consider for businesses dealing in physical goods. Heightened immigration enforcement will be high on some companies’ areas of concern, while others will feel regulatory changes. Although we don’t have much clarity on where the tariffs will end up, one…

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Filed under: News - @ April 15, 2025 7:26 pm