The post Bybit’s 2026 Crypto Outlook Challenges the Four-Year Crypto Cycle appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

DUBAI, UAE, Jan. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its 2026 Crypto Outlook, a research report that analyzes the forces expected to shape digital asset markets throughout 2026. The annual report focuses primarily on bitcoin and the broader crypto market, examining key macro drivers and risks. It is further informed by derivatives market data, options-implied probabilities, volatility dynamics, cross-asset correlations, and global macroeconomic conditions. It also assesses regulatory and structural developments, including institutional adoption trends and emerging technological considerations, to evaluate how crypto markets may behave in the year ahead. A central question explored in the report is whether the four-year crypto market cycle, historically associated with bitcoin halving events and post-cycle drawdowns, remains the dominant framework for understanding price behavior in 2026. The analysis suggests that while historical cycles remain relevant, their influence may be diminishing as macroeconomic policy, institutional participation, and market structure play a growing role in price formation. Key findings: Macro environment and cross-asset dynamics.The outlook notes that markets are pricing in further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a backdrop that could support risk assets more broadly. Bitcoin has recently lagged U.S. equities, and the report highlights the potential for a renewed positive correlation between bitcoin and major equity indices should macro conditions remain accommodative. Derivatives market signals.Based on options market data analyzed in the report, there is currently a 10.3% implied probability of bitcoin trading at $150,000 by the end of 2026. The report emphasizes that this figure reflects market pricing rather than a forecast, and suggests that current options markets may be conservatively positioned relative to the broader macro and regulatory environment. Policy and event-driven risks.While the overall backdrop is described as constructive, the report underscores the importance of monitoring key policy and event…

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Filed under: News - @ January 6, 2026 3:23 pm