Circle Could Reach $75B by 2030 Despite Stablecoin Yield Concerns, Says Bitwise CIO
The post Circle Could Reach $75B by 2030 Despite Stablecoin Yield Concerns, Says Bitwise CIO appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said today that Circle could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030. He outlined the estimate using conservative assumptions tied to stablecoin adoption. The projection comes as lawmakers review stablecoin yield concerns in the CLARITY Act. Circle Outlook Tied to Market Size and Share According to Matt Hougan, in the weekly memo, Circle’s long-term value depends on three variables, starting with total stablecoin market growth. He cited a widely referenced forecast from Citigroup. That estimate places the market at $1.9 trillion by 2030 under a base scenario. As reported by Coingape, Tether finally is finally completing its first full audit thus challenging Circle’s regulatory moat in the US. However, he noted that yield incentives have not driven adoption so far. Instead, users rely on stablecoins for payments, settlement, and global transfers. As a result, he said regulatory limits on yield may not change overall demand trends. Source: Bitwise Next, he addressed Circle’s market share through its USDC stablecoin. USDC holds about 25% of the global stablecoin supply. Although large financial firms are entering the sector, Hougan pointed to early movers maintaining leadership in similar markets. He added that Circle dominates regulated onshore markets, where compliance requirements shape adoption. That share, he estimated, exceeds 80% in those segments. Even so, his model assumes Circle maintains its current 25% share. Margins Face Pressure The third variable in Hougan’s framework focuses on profitability. Circle earns revenue from interest on reserves backing USDC, mainly U.S. Treasuries. At current rates, that yield is near 4% on roughly $80 billion in assets. However, distribution agreements reduce that figure. Circle shares revenue with partners, including Coinbase, which hosts Circle’s USDC across its platform. These arrangements lower Circle’s effective take rate to about 1.6%. Looking ahead, Hougan expects competitive pressure to reduce margins further.…
Filed under: News - @ March 26, 2026 6:23 am