Consumer spending is up big in early April in anticipation of tariffs
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Consumer spending is rising at a faster clip this month as everyday Americans rush to make purchases before President Donald Trump’s full tariff plan takes effect, data released Wednesday from JPMorgan shows. Spending through the first 15 days in April climbed about 3.8% from the same period a year ago, JPMorgan found. Spending in March increased about 2.7% from the comparable month a year ago. The pickup in spending shouldn’t be construed as heralding faster economic growth, however. “April data may reflect a pullforward of discretionary spending on big-ticket items if consumers tried to lock in lower prices before tariffs went into effect,” JPMorgan analysts led by Richard Shane wrote to clients in a note on Wednesday. Much of the April gain came from discretionary spending, which rose by 4.3% in the first 15 days year-over-year, versus 2.9% growth in non-discretionary spending. Psychological impact JPMorgan’s data offers early hard evidence of how Trump’s plan for steep tariffs on imports has affected the psyche of American consumers. While Trump placed many of his planned levies on a 90-day pause soon after announcing them, anecdotal reports show Main Street consumers bracing for what many view as a seismic shift in global trade. To be sure, JPMorgan noted that some of the growth in spending may have also been tied to the Easter holiday, which fell almost three weeks later in 2025 than in 2024. The analysts also pointed to sliding gasoline prices as a possible driver of increased discretionary spending. Still, the potential for some binge buying before the full effect of Trump’s tariff policy is felt has altered the short-term economic outlook for small business owners and policymakers alike. At first, “activity might look artificially high … and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it…
Filed under: News - @ April 24, 2025 1:21 pm