Crypto Analyst Ben Cowen Reveals His Long-Term Views on Cardano
Cowen expresses regret for not investing more in Bitcoin compared to ADA during 2018-2019, advising that Bitcoin might be a safer bet in a pre-halving year.
He cautions against blindly following popular market narratives, emphasising the importance of critical analysis and historical data.
We Are a Product of Our Prior Experiences
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently shared his views on Cardano (ADA) with his 788k subscribers on YouTube.
Cowen started off about how past experiences shape our perspectives, using his own crypto analysis videos from 2019 and 2020 as examples. He reflected on the challenges of making accurate crypto price predictions, noting his successful but ultimately cautious predictions for ADA. Cowen highlighted the unpredictability of such forecasts, mentioning how early predictions brought significant returns, but later one’s disappointed newer followers. He concluded by acknowledging the complexity and inherent uncertainty in predicting crypto market trends.
So, I was filled with optimism, right? I was like ‘all right well maybe one more retest of the lower low and we’re off to the races,’ right? Because I didn’t think Bitcoin would put in lower lows.
He talked about a demoralising phase where after buying ADA in the 12-cent range, just to see it going sideways at a mere few cents for an extended period.
Buying Bitcoin Over ADA Prior to Halving
As a result of his experiences, Cowen became more cautious and events like the pandemic influenced his investment strategy.
Bitcoin/ USD, source: Benjamin Cowen/ TradingView/ YouTube
He regrets not investing more in Bitcoin during 2018-2019, as it would have been more profitable than ADA at that time. He explains how, in hindsight, converting Bitcoin to ADA at the right time would have been a better strategy. He uses this reflection to advise on current investment strategies, suggesting that in a pre-halving year, Bitcoin might be a safer bet than altcoins like ADA, which can still experience new lows even if Bitcoin doesn’t.
You’ve heard my views on Bitcoin dominance more times than you probably care to count. But I experienced it brutally last cycle and I wanted to avoid that same mistake this cycle, right? I wanted to avoid it because essentially you know what happened last cycle.
He also addressed his reputation within the Cardano community, acknowledging that his critical views on ADA in relation to Bitcoin may not be well-received but clarified that his opinions are based on personal experience and understanding of monetary policy impacts on crypto. So, in essence, while Cardano may be a strong blockchain that has great potential, markets don’t necessarily work that way, meaning it does not translate to short term price appreciation.
Caught in False Narratives
Ben Cowen’s discussion reflects a cautionary tale about the risks of adhering too closely to popular market narratives without considering historical data and market trends. He acknowledges his earlier belief in altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, a narrative that proved to be misleading as Bitcoin demonstrated stronger resilience and dominance.
According to Cowen, there is a tendency among the broader crypto community to get caught up in narratives, like the potential for altcoins to flip Bitcoin or Ethereum, which has never materialised. Cowen’s experience shows the danger of being swayed by popular but unfounded expectations, leading to investment decisions that might not align with market realities.
I mean, you know, as much as you might like Cardano, I don’t see it flipping Ethereum. And people said all sorts of things, but guess what? They never flipped Ethereum. And I don’t think it’s going to this cycle either. But I also don’t think Ethereum’s going to flip Bitcoin.
His reflection serves as a reminder that while narratives can be compelling, they should be balanced with a critical analysis of market data, historical trends, and an understanding of external factors like monetary policy, to avoid being caught in false narratives that could lead to poor investment decisions.
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ November 24, 2023 2:52 am