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The current crypto market is mirroring the pattern seen in 2017 when Bitcoin posted a steady uptrend throughout the year before skyrocketing in December, says crypto research platform Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. “It’s spookily similar to 2017,” Pal said in a video on Thursday. Pal said he is starting to forecast a longer crypto cycle this time around given that the business cycle score — a macroeconomic model he uses to track where the global economy is in the broader cycle — is “still below 50” and it generally “takes a while to climb up.” Macro data the catalyst behind extended crypto cycle  Bitcoin (BTC) started 2017 trading around $1,044 before reaching $2,187 by May 31 and closing the year at $14,156, an approximate 1,255% increase from its price at the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data. However, Pal speculated that the weakening US dollar could indicate that the current crypto cycle is still far from reaching its peak. “With the dollar breaking down even today, it’s starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026,” he said. Since Jan. 1, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8.99%, sitting at 98.77 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated. When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative investment but as an alternative currency. The US dollar index is 98.774 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView Pal said macroeconomic data has likely been a primary catalyst in pushing the crypto cycle back further. “It’s like the whole cycle got shifted cause rates didn’t get adjusted; the dollar was sideways for a period of time,” he said. He also said that current market conditions may resemble 2020 more than 2021, suggesting the market could…

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Filed under: News - @ June 21, 2025 9:27 am