Dow Jones sees hesitating gains as Fed rate call looms
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US stocks posted a second consecutive session of gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) adding around 0.3% to hold in the 47,000 region. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained a similar amount. Sentiment remained cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, with volatile Crude Oil prices and the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran continuing to set the macro tone. Fed on deck: dot plot in the spotlight The Federal Reserve (Fed) kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with the its latest policy statement due at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows a 94% probability the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%, making the decision itself a near-foregone conclusion. What markets are laser-focused on is the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot of policymaker rate expectations: the first SEP update since the Iran conflict erupted and Crude Oil surged above $100 per barrel. Rate cut expectations have been aggressively unwound over the past week. Prior to the conflict, futures markets had a June cut firmly priced with a reasonable shot at a second move in September. That’s all gone now. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows just one cut priced for December 2026, with no reductions seen at any earlier meeting. Goldman Sachs formally pushed its forecast for the next cut out to September, while acknowledging even that depends on labour market deterioration. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference language on energy-driven inflation and the growth outlook will be critical, as any dovish tilt would likely be taken as a green light for equities. Oil, Iran, and energy stocks Brent crude pushed back above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, up around 2% on the session, as markets continued to discount a smooth or swift…
Filed under: News - @ March 17, 2026 5:35 pm