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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – MAY 3: Traffic backs up on southbound Interstate 805 as people are about to … More enter Tijuana, Mexico at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry on May 3, 2025 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images) Getty Images For most of the past century, energy producers could count on steady oil demand growth. From industrial development in China to population booms in emerging markets, the global appetite for oil kept expanding like clockwork. There were occasional exceptions, like the 2008-2009 recession and the demand slump from COVID-19, but global oil demand has increased at an average rate of about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for nearly 60 years. Global Oil Consumption 1965-2023. Robert Rapier But a recent forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggests that the world may be entering a new phase—one where oil demand grows at a significantly slower pace. This predicted change isn’t the result of a single trend. Instead, it reflects a confluence of global forces—some structural, some temporary—that are reshaping how and where oil is used. For energy producers, investors, and policymakers, understanding what’s behind this slowdown is critical to navigating the years ahead. Demand Growth: Not What It Used to Be According to the EIA’s most recent outlook, global oil consumption will rise by less than one million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. While any increase may sound like good news to the oil industry, that figure marks a significant drop from the historical average. It’s not that oil is going away anytime soon. But the days of strong, year-over-year demand growth—once seen as inevitable—may soon give way to something more measured, and in some cases, more uncertain. Sluggish Growth, Slower Demand At the heart of this slowdown is the global…

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Filed under: News - @ May 23, 2025 9:23 pm