Ethereum has finally escaped what seemed to be a one-way path toward a prolonged sideways price action, leaving behind a narrow price range in which it had been trapped for more than a month.

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has pushed above key accumulation levels and is now eyeing the next major price hurdle. Was this the breakout move crypto traders have been waiting to see? Or was this pushup something more along the lines of a bull trap?

The breakout makes a critical moment for Ethereum, which is up 47.5% since the start of the quarter — one of its strongest Q2 performances in recent years. Looking at cost basis distribution and options market activity gives us some clarity on the structure supporting this move and on the resistance levels we’ll encounter if Ethereum keeps moving higher.

Cost Basis Clusters Signal Solid Foundation

On-chain data shows that roughly 1.3 million ETH bought between $2,700 and $2,740. This is a key consolidation range over the last month. Moreover, 800,000 more ETH were acquired around $2,760. Let’s consider these as two purchase zones with a total of 2.1 million ETH accumulated in them.

Accumulation behavior points to Ethereum’s new range low of between $2,700 and $2,760 acting as a potentially firm support zone if the price retraces. Why? Because investors who entered during the consolidation phase are now in profit. Those folks have every incentive to defend their positions — which is what “accumulation” suggests they’re up to. And that, in turn, is what makes the new range low a likely strong support zone.

#Ethereum just broke out of a month-long range. Cost Basis Distribution shows 1.3M $ETH held around $2.70K and $2.74K, and 800K #ETH at $2.76K. These investors accumulated during consolidation and now will potentially form a strong support zone. pic.twitter.com/X6zQRnzIyF

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 11, 2025

The cost basis distribution above the current spot price is much more evenly spread. Between $2,760 and $3,420, each $50 increment holds between 200,000 and 400,000 ETH, with no single band commanding outsized concentration. The first “significant” cluster of resistance doesn’t show up until $3,417, where almost 608,000 ETH are held.

This relatively balanced supply above spot suggests minimal resistance for Ethereum until it reaches the $3,400–$3,420 level. But anything close to resembling a rally will depend on what the holders in the $2,800 to $3,300 range do — either take profits or hold and hope for more upside.

Short-Term Volatility Surges with Breakout

The breakout hasn’t gone unnoticed in the options market, where Ethereum’s implied volatility (IV) has spiked over the past 48 hours. Short-dated options have been especially lively, reflecting increased demand for both kinds of hedges: those that protect against a drop in Ethereum’s price and those that provide extra leverage in case the price keeps going up.

Over the past 48 hours, #ETH‘s short-dated options have repriced sharply higher:

1-week IV:from 65.2% → 79.0%
1-month IV:from 66.4% → 72.1%

This steepening vol term structure reflects rising demand for near-term protection or upside exposure as $ETH breaks out. pic.twitter.com/BX56v0PH02

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 11, 2025

The surge in one-week implied volatility, from 65.2% to 79.0%, is sharp enough to indicate that traders anticipate a considerable short-term movement in prices. One-month implied volatility didn’t miss the boat, either; it was up, from 66.4% to 72.1%, and it’s steepening the volatility term structure.

Pricing for volatility is jumping in typical fashion for breakout situations, and it could be that the market is getting increasingly pumped for Ethereum to not just retest its highs from earlier this year but to also set some fresh highs. There’s a lot of energy in this one right now, and traders are betting that it’s going to go somewhere soon.

Resistance Thin Until $3.4K, Momentum Holds

From a technical perspective, Ethereum can keep its journey toward $3,420 underway if it holds above a $2,700 to $2,760 support zone. There’s no heavy resistance in the $2,800 to $3,300 range—just a few stops along the way—that would suggest a swift and fairly easy journey if the broader crypto market stays favorable.

Sellers’ behavior between these bands is the most crucial factor to observe. Should the bulk of investors choose to hold, Ethereum’s movements have the potential to mimic past breakouts. In those instances, what little overhead resistance existed allowed for rapid price discovery. On the other hand, if a sizable chunk of ETH holders starts to profit-take, what seemed like healthy consolidation all of the sudden might look and feel like a short-term dip in Ethereum’s price—with the potential to retest the range high.

ETH has already gained almost 50% this quarter, and with no major obstacles in the way, Ethereum currently possesses strong momentum. Yet the way it traverses the next $500 stretch will determine if this most recent surge becomes a legitimate rally or just another spike in the routine price path of cryptocurrencies.

As Ethereum takes back the reins of the market, the relationship between spot price performance, cost basis levels, and options market sentiment will keep on telling the story — and probably setting the price — in the coming weeks.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ June 12, 2025 4:27 am