Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Plummet To 35%: Analysts Signal Growing Skepticism
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The much-awaited approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission faces a significant setback as Bloomberg ETF analysts estimate the chances at a mere 35%, marking a substantial decline from earlier predictions.
Analysts cite the main reasons behind this mere chance of possibility of approval as a lack of progress and political pressures.
Changing Sentiment
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed the gloomy news: “We are [at] 35% odds.” This is a tremendous difference compared to January predictions where Balchunas first thought of the 70% chance of approval by May.
His fellow James Seyffart, who previously estimated approval odds at 60-65%, but now even seems to lose hope, said “This Ethereum ETF cycle looks exactly the other way as Bitcoin ETF approval odds now.”
Investment experts warn that the lack of modification of the Ethereum ETF applications in the latest filings is a red flag that has always preceded the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The presence of negative indicators, for example, a lack of market makers and SEC statements, sends a message about the SEC’s stand.
GSR, a crypto market-making firm, stated that they may drop their approval odds if they do not see any positive changes in the upcoming weeks.
The Political Pressures and the Regulatory Delays
Political pressures from figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren, along with regulatory obstacles and the slow speed of the SEC, make it a conservative organization for approving any Ethereum ETFs.
The latest delay in deciding on plans by the two banking giants, BlackRock and Fidelity, has added to the uncertainty. Analysts, like Jake Chervinsky, Variant’s Chief Legal Officer, argue that this is the reason behind the SEC being extra careful in the regulatory process and the political resistance and the market volatility.
The SEC’s conservative approach may be attributed to political opposition and a chance to learn from the cryptocurrency ETF approval mistakes.
The Ethereum ETFs are surrounded with uncertainty as the May 23 deadline draws nearer. Alternatively, the once enthusiastic attitude toward the approval is now full of uncertainty.
Filed under: Bitcoin - @ March 12, 2024 6:20 am