Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference held by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on May 15, 2025 in Washington, DC. Andrew Harnik | Getty Images Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed significantly over the past five years. During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target, the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon. “Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,” Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks.” The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%. The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling inflation. Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that tariffs will slow growth and…
Filed under: News - @ May 15, 2025 1:27 pm