Ford Motor Company (F) Stock: Shares Rise as Guidance Holds After Supplier Fire

TLDR

Ford shares rose nearly 4% after the company maintained its 2025 financial guidance.
A fire at the Novelis Oswego aluminum plant disrupted operations, but no injuries were reported.
Novelis resumed key operations and is using alternate sources to maintain Ford’s supply chain.
Ford kept its adjusted EBIT forecast of $6B–$6.5B and free cash flow outlook of $2B–$3B.
The stock has strong YTD gains, outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin.

Ford Motor Company (F) traded at $12.88, up 3.82% midday Friday, as the automaker reassured investors by keeping its full-year 2025 financial outlook intact after a fire at a major aluminum supplier.

Ford Motor Company, F

Ford has not yet announced its next earnings date. The price action reflected growing confidence that the incident will not derail operations heading into 2026.

Supplier Fire Disrupts Operations but Supply Chain Holds

The fire broke out Thursday at the Novelis Oswego aluminum plant, a key Ford supplier. The facility was evacuated safely, with no injuries reported among employees, contractors, or first responders. Despite the disruption, the supplier moved quickly to stabilize operations.

By Friday morning, Novelis had brought its cold mill and heat treatment operations back online. The plant also resumed shipments of finished aluminum to Ford. To reinforce supply continuity, Novelis began tapping into its global network and industry partners, reducing the risk of operational delays for the automaker.

Ford Reaffirms 2025 Financial Outlook

Ford maintained its 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, indicating internal confidence in its cost structure and production plans. The company also reiterated its forecast for $2 billion to $3 billion in adjusted free cash flow for the year.

$F Ford just reiterated its adjusted EBIT forecast for 2025.

The company also maintained its full-year outlook for adjusted free cash flow of $2–$3 billion.

Ford said its new facility in Bay Minette, Alabama is scheduled to begin commissioning in the second half of 2025. pic.twitter.com/zLsk040gJR

— PeloSwing (@PeloSwing) November 21, 2025

This reaffirmation played a central role in Friday’s stock rally, as investors interpreted the guidance as a sign that the supply chain disruption remains manageable.

Novelis Plans New U.S. Aluminum Facility

Looking ahead, Novelis said it plans to bolster the U.S. aluminum supply chain with a new plant in Bay Minette, Alabama. The facility is expected to begin commissioning in the second half of 2026, positioning the supplier to increase material availability for major automakers like Ford.

The long-term expansion is viewed as a positive development for Ford’s sourcing stability, especially as demand rises for lightweight materials in both traditional vehicles and EVs.

Performance Overview

Ford’s stock performance shows meaningful strength over multiple periods, with notable outperformance in 2025.

Trailing total returns as of November 21, 2025:

YTD: F +39.80% vs. S&P 500 +13.03%
1-Year: F +28.15% vs. +11.76%
3-Year: F +17.30% vs. +68.31%
5-Year: F +94.30% vs. +86.88%

Strong YTD and long-term performance reflect investors’ confidence in Ford’s strategy despite near-term operational challenges.

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