Gas Hits $4 a Gallon for First Time Since 2022 – And Analysts Say It Could Get Worse
TLDR
US gas prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, hitting a national average of $4.018 per gallon.
Crude oil benchmarks have surged roughly 50% over the past month since the US-Iran war began.
The Trump administration issued emergency waivers on ethanol restrictions and Jones Act requirements, but neither has brought prices down.
Diesel hit $5.45 per gallon — also a record monthly gain.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $115 for April, with some analysts warning prices could hit $200 if the conflict runs through June.
Gas prices in the US crossed a psychological milestone on Tuesday, topping $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022. The national average climbed to $4.018 per gallon, marking the largest monthly gain on record, according to data firm GasBuddy.
The move is directly tied to the ongoing US-Iran war, now in its fifth week. Over the past month, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have each surged roughly 50%, with Brent trading near $107.80 a barrel and WTI around $102 a barrel.
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)
From a year ago, average pump prices are up about $1 per gallon. Most of that jump has come since the war broke out.
Truckers are feeling it even harder. The national average for diesel hit $5.45 per gallon on Tuesday — also a record monthly gain, per GasBuddy.
GAS PRICES SURGE PAST $4 AMID WAR
US gasoline has topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, rising over $1 in a month as the Iran war disrupts global oil supply. Crude prices have climbed above $100, pushing fuel costs sharply higher worldwide.
The spike is fueling…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 31, 2026
On March 25, the Trump administration issued an emergency waiver relaxing federal ethanol restrictions on E15 gasoline, a cheaper fuel blend. The White House also issued a temporary 60-day waiver on Jones Act shipping requirements, which normally raise costs for domestic transport.
Neither measure has made a visible dent in prices at the pump.
The Strait of Hormuz Problem
Even if the war ends soon, oil prices may not fall quickly. The sticking point is the Strait of Hormuz, which handled roughly 20% of global oil and natural gas before the conflict began.
President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down the military campaign even if the Strait remains largely closed, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing administration officials. As long as the corridor stays blocked, oil prices could remain near triple digits.
The impact is already rippling into Asia. Most of the crude that passed through the Strait was headed to Asian refineries. Bangladesh has shut universities, while Pakistan and the Philippines have introduced shortened workweeks to manage energy demand.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine were scheduled to hold a press conference Tuesday at 8 a.m. Eastern time.
What Analysts Are Saying
Goldman Sachs raised its April Brent forecast from $85 to $115, citing a longer disruption supporting the risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz. Senior Saudi officials have modeled Brent at $180 if the war runs through April. Analysts at Macquarie have said Brent could cross $200 if the conflict continues through June.
Premium unleaded and jet fuel prices are also climbing. The consumer cost at the pump, while painful, is still below what commercial operators are absorbing on diesel.
Brent crude futures were last trading near $107.61, up slightly on the day.
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Filed under: News - @ March 31, 2026 10:26 am