The post Gold (XAU/USD) Price Prediction: Rally Toward $5,286 Faces Risk as Middle East Conflict Meets Elliott Wave Correction appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

After plunging from the 5,370 region to a low near 4,996 in a single session—roughly a 7% decline—XAU/USD has attempted a rebound. However, analysts say the recovery toward 5,286 may face structural resistance unless broader macro conditions shift. Sharp Drop Challenges Safe-Haven Narrative Traditionally viewed as a gold safe-haven asset, bullion tends to rise when geopolitical tensions escalate. Yet, during the latest bout of Middle East conflict, gold declined while the U.S. dollar strengthened. Gold recently declined from the $5,370 region to $4,996 despite rising geopolitical tensions, though dip-buying pressure later supported a modest technical rebound. Source: Chum_trades on TradingView Spot gold is currently hovering around the 5,100–5,200 region. Key resistance levels are clustered between 5,190 and 5,280, with 5,286 now acting as a critical invalidation level for short-term bearish wave structures. On the downside, immediate gold price support levels are seen at 5,070, 5,037, and 5,014, followed by 4,965 and 4,889. Elliott Wave Signals Corrective Risk From a gold technical analysis perspective, momentum indicators have turned mixed. The daily (D1) timeframe confirms a bearish reversal, suggesting either a downtrend or extended consolidation. Meanwhile, the four-hour chart shows momentum rising toward overbought territory, hinting that a near-term pullback could follow. The D1 structure suggests Wave B may have peaked after a 0.786 Fibonacci rejection, with Wave C potentially targeting a $4,300 breakdown. Source: WavePoint_FX on TradingView According to the current Elliott Wave structure: Wave B may have topped near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. Wave C is projected toward the 4,282 zone. A close above 5,286 would invalidate the immediate bearish 5-wave scenario.   This places 5,204 and 5,286 at the center of the gold price structure debate. A sustained break above 5,286 would shift sentiment, while rejection in this area could accelerate a deeper corrective leg. Gold vs Dollar and…

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Filed under: News - @ March 4, 2026 4:25 pm