Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk to 35% as Trump Tariff Plans Expand
The post Goldman Sachs Raises US Recession Risk to 35% as Trump Tariff Plans Expand appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TLDR Goldman Sachs raised 12-month US recession probability to 35% due to anticipated Trump tariffs Expects average US tariff rate to rise 15 percentage points in 2025, leading to higher inflation Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, increased inflation projection to 3.5% Trump plans to announce across-the-board reciprocal tariffs averaging 15% on April 2 Bitcoin and crypto markets are affected by these macroeconomic conditions, with BTC trading at $83,230 President Donald Trump’s planned tariff increases have prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month US recession probability to 35%, up from 20% previously. The bank warns that Trump’s trade policies could lead to slower growth, higher inflation, and rising unemployment. Goldman Sachs economists released a note titled “US Economics Analyst: A Further Increase in Our Tariff Assumptions,” explaining their concerns. This marks the bank’s second upward revision to its 2025 US tariff expectations in March alone. The bank now expects the average US tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025. Most of this change comes from more aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that Trump is expected to announce. Trump is set to reveal across-the-board reciprocal tariffs on April 2. These are expected to average 15% on all US trading partners. After accounting for likely exclusions for certain countries and products, Goldman estimates the effective increase will be around 9 percentage points. These tariff changes have led Goldman to cut its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to just 1%. This represents a 0.5 percentage point reduction from their previous prediction. Goldman raises its 12-month recession probability from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/LToFpq3BtA — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) March 30, 2025 The bank also raised its year-end core PCE inflation forecast to 3.5%. This is 0.5 percentage points higher than earlier estimates and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Unemployment projections…
Filed under: News - @ April 1, 2025 3:26 pm