Goldman Sachs said there’s a higher risk of a stock market correction in the coming months
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Goldman Sachs has revealed that there’s a high chance the stock market could reverse in the coming months due to economic uncertainty. The bank also referred to its equity asymmetry framework, which indicated that the risk of a drop in the stock market had increased. The financial institution uses the equity asymmetry framework to measure stocks based on the market environment and the latest economic data. The analysts said the model showed that the S&P 500 has a higher than 10% chance of a drawdown within the next three months. CBOE volatility index plummets more than 70% from January’s peak Goldman’s Pasquariello on the discrepancy between the firm’s negative sentiment indicator and stocks at all-time highs: the chart of our “sentiment indicator” that I sent on Monday provoked a lot of responses. given some clear enthusiasm in the retail channel, many were… pic.twitter.com/YyzLIDzIql — Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) August 14, 2025 The stock market index, which tracks the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges, also showed a more than 20% chance of a market downturn in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs analysts said they mirrored the spike in drawdown to the previous spike seen during the S&P 500’s rally in January. The bank’s equity asymmetry framework showed a higher chance of a drawdown before President Trump announced his flurry of tariffs on April 2. At the time, the S&P 500 followed a historic sell-off as forecasted by the analysts. “The equity drawdown probability is elevated and has increased recently. Usually levels above 30% give a signal for downside risk to equities, and current levels are nearing those.” -David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist in Goldman Sachs Research. The financial institution also attributed two main reasons as to why its model was indicating an elevated risk…
Filed under: News - @ August 15, 2025 5:27 am