The post Have financial markets reached peak uncertainty? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Markets feel like they’re hanging by a thread. Everyone’s nervous. Nobody agrees on anything. Traders don’t trust forecasts. Investors don’t trust the Fed. The government doesn’t even trust itself. And when that kind of chaos shows up, some believe it means one thing—buy. But figuring out if this is really the peak of uncertainty is the hard part. Right now, all eyes are on April 2. That’s when Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are supposed to kick in. Nobody knows what they’ll look like. Nobody knows how broad or how harsh they’ll be. Just the threat of them has already shaken everything. There are also new immigration restrictions, messy federal budget cuts, and a slow-burn consumer confidence collapse. The disaster is everywhere. Trump’s vague tariff threat sparks reactions On Friday, the S&P 500 opened weak, dropping 1% early in the session. But then Trump said the tariffs might have “some flexibility.” Nothing concrete. Just a random, soft line. Still, the market climbed back and closed slightly up. After weeks of swinging back and forth on headlines, it didn’t take much to move the needle. This is the kind of wild mood swing traders are living with. Renaissance Macro Research says it’s not new. They’ve tracked the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for decades. And when the index hits the top 10% of its range—like right now—future equity performance has usually been strong. They say the S&P 500 gains an average of 8.8% over the next three months, and it goes up 80% of the time. When uncertainty is low, markets barely move—only 36% of the time does it rally. Right now, the index is past Covid panic levels. And Sunday marked five years since the 2020 bottom, where fear peaked and the S&P 500 shot up 100% over 22 months. That’s the…

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Filed under: News - @ March 22, 2025 8:23 pm