Here’s the level, according to on-chain data, that Bitcoin might have to conquer if the rally has to make a real comeback.

Bitcoin Is Currently Near Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

In a new post on X, analyst Root shared a chart revealing that the BTC price has recently been retesting the short-term holders’ cost basis or the realized price (STHs).

The “realized price” here measures the average price at which Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. When the spot price is trading above this indicator, the holders are in a state of profit right now, while below the metric implies the market is in loss.

This realized price is for the entire investor base but can be defined only for specific segments. In the context of the current discussion, the holder group of interest is the “short-term holders” (STHs).

The STHs include all investors who purchased their coins less than 155 days ago. Their average cost basis should, thus, lie inside the price range of the past five months.

Here is a chart that shows how the realized price of the Bitcoin STHs has changed over the past few years:

As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin briefly broke above the STH realized price during the latest rally above the $28,000 level. Still, with the pullback, the cryptocurrency has plunged under the metric again.

The STH cost basis has been historically important for the asset, as breaks above the level generally mean bullish winds. At the same time, plunges under have often brought with them bearish momentum.

But the significance doesn’t end there: the level has acted as support during rallies and has provided resistance in bearish periods. The explanation behind this curious pattern could lie in investor psychology.

While rallies are going on if the BTC spot price drops to the cost basis of the STHs, these investors may tend to believe that the price would once again go up in the future, and so, they might buy more at their cost basis, thinking it to be a profitable buy. This extraordinary buying pressure could be behind the support BTC finds here.

Conversely, bear markets put fear in the minds of the STHs, so as soon as they can break even, they quickly sell and exit, thus providing resistance to the cryptocurrency.

It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will make a break above the STH realized price in the coming days, and if it does, whether the price will be able to stay above it for an extended period, unlike the latest attempt.

Bitcoin had been enjoying support at this level during the rally in the first half of the year, so if it can reclaim the line again, it would be an optimistic sign for things to come.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $27,400, up 4% in the last week.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ October 4, 2023 9:00 pm