How ‘Spoofing’ Is Diverting Russian Missiles Into Empty Fields
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Debris from a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile decoyed into an empty field by spoofing Night Watch The Kinzhal is one of Russia’s most modern weapons, a hypersonic missile ahead of anything fielded by the U.S. And while Ukraine has had some success downing them with Patriot missiles, recent modifications have helped Kinzhals to evade interceptors. Military officials who spoke to the FT said the intercept rate dropped from about 37 percent in August to about 6 percent in September. In theory this leaves an open goal for the hypersonic missiles. But instead of hitting their targets, Kinzhals having recently been coming down at Mach 5+ and smashing into empty fields. Ukraine’s Night Watch unit say their Lima Electronic Warfare systems is sending the Kinzhals astray, using a technique known as spoofing. Like a matador using a cloak to divert a charging bull, Night Watch makes Kinzhals miss by just enough to prevent damage. “As of now, there are 21 suppressed Kinzhal missiles,” a source from Night Watch told me yesterday, noting that they were waiting for confirmation of two others to add to the score. Proof Of The Spoof The Kinzhal hypersonic missile is launched from a specially modified Mikoyan MiG-31K fighter jet Getty Images According to the makers, the Kinzhal has a ‘Circular Error Probable’ (CEP) of 10 meters, meaning it should hit within 10 meters of the aim point half of the time. Ukrainian sources do not post information about where missiles land, but on November 10th a Russian military blogger released satellite images of craters left by recent Kinzhal strikes showing misses by up to 144 meters. If the target is an underground bunker of similar facility, that guarantees a miss, and is obviously much worse than the claimed CEP. To understand what is happening we need…
Filed under: News - @ November 20, 2025 1:24 pm